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Is cowcat really profitable on Polymarket?
0x38e59b36aae31b164200d0cad7c3fe5e0ee795e7
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. cowcat made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 112 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $95K on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$62K: a gap of $33K that can only come from losing days the board never shows. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$21K, last month +$54K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 59% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 59%Verified PnL#459 of 1130
Beats 76%30-day PnL#190 of 810
Beats 55%Win rate#417 of 928
Beats 33%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#638 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board112
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$62K
Verified lifetime PnL
$24.16MVolume
68.4%Win rate (sample) · n=395
0.30%PnL ÷ Volume
$21K7-day PnL
$54K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$62.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $280only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$2,432partial
Liquidity rewards$1,565
0.26% ROI31.9% Win rate · n=863
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$229.2K · loses the most in Finance -$32.3K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$64.4K2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HousePolitics · Yes
- +$52.9KWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October? Crypto · Yes / No
- +$31.9KWill Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?Crypto · No / Yes
- +$30.5KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$27.0KWill Google have the top AI model on March 31?Tech & science · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$54.3KWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Politics · Yes
- -$24.7KEthereum above $3,300 on January 17?Crypto · No
- -$24.1KEthereum above $3,400 on January 31?Crypto · No
- -$18.2KWill Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?Crypto · Yes / No
- -$16.5KWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 2187 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$587.6K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$62KVerified lifetime PnL
$33KBelow board-day sum
112Days on board
$95KBoard-day sum
$21K7-day PnL
$54K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $75 |
| 2026-04 | 8 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 23 | $17K |
| 2026-06 | 15 | $24K |
| 2026-07 | 21 | $21K |
| 2026-08 | 25 | $28K |
| 2026-09 | 19 | $3K |
Which boards
Sports 65Politics 64Tech 23Finance 11Culture 10Weather 4Crypto 1All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
47% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (64% maker / 36% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio47%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-10
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$2K
Taker rebate$869
Maker share64%
Taker share36%
Window2026-02-19 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$95K
Verified lifetime PnL$62K
Verification gap-$33K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)