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← All boardsIs TheReturnOfDarthMaul really profitable on Polymarket?
0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699
Short answer
Mostly yes. TheReturnOfDarthMaul made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 114 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $369K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.64M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$377K, last month +$161K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Finance traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 93% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 93%Verified PnL#40 of 624
Beats 87%30-day PnL#77 of 594
Beats 20%Win rate#472 of 592
Beats 94%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#36 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board114
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$1.64M
Verified lifetime PnL
$26.65MVolume
47.7%Win rate (sample) · n=398
5.50%PnL ÷ Volume
$377K7-day PnL
$161K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.64M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $24.9Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$28.0Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$8,125
6.16% ROI47.5% Win rate · n=400
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$1.50M · loses the most in Sports -$48.8K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$2.05MWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$240.1KWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes
- +$153.8KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · No
- +$73.6KFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$52.9KWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$419.7KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · No
- -$323.6KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$158.1KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$76.4KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · No
- -$44.5KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$1.64MVerified lifetime PnL
$1.27MEarned off the board
114Days on board
$369KBoard-day sum
$377K7-day PnL
$161K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | $6K |
| 2026-05 | 28 | $31K |
| 2026-06 | 22 | $7K |
| 2026-07 | 18 | $153K |
| 2026-08 | 15 | $40K |
| 2026-09 | 17 | $58K |
| 2026-10 | 7 | $70K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $4K |
Which boards
Finance 75Politics 42Sports 25Crypto 13Culture 10All markets 9Tech 4Mentions 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
92% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $28K (37% maker / 63% taker); recent window rebate share 0%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio92%
Fills measured498
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$28K
Maker rebate$10K
Taker rebate$18K
Maker share37%
Taker share63%
Window2026-04-12 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$7.09M
Rebate$8K
Net total$7.10M
Rebate share0%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$369K
Verified lifetime PnL$1.64M
Verification gap$1.27M
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)