ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs eightpenguins really profitable on Polymarket?
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
Short answer
Mostly yes. eightpenguins made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 66 days (2026-04-27 to 2026-09-18), adding up to $89K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$321K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$10K, last month -$3K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 76% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 76%Verified PnL#145 of 624
Beats 17%30-day PnL#489 of 594
Beats 57%Win rate#251 of 592
Beats 89%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#64 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board66
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-09-18
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$321K
Verified lifetime PnL
$7.89MVolume
68.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
3.78%PnL ÷ Volume
-$10K7-day PnL
-$3K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$321.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $4,096only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,270partial
Liquidity rewards$3,405
4.07% ROI46.7% Win rate · n=587
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$397.1K · loses the most in Crypto -$1,642
Top 5 winning markets
- +$87.4KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$55.2KUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics · Yes
- +$30.9KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$24.7KWill Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?Politics · Yes
- +$22.4KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$11.0KWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics · No
- -$8,242US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Politics · No
- -$6,826Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Politics · No
- -$6,614US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$6,584 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics · No / Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$321KVerified lifetime PnL
$233KEarned off the board
66Days on board
$89KBoard-day sum
-$10K7-day PnL
-$3K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $466 |
| 2026-05 | 18 | $19K |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $39K |
| 2026-07 | 21 | $10K |
| 2026-08 | 8 | $19K |
| 2026-09 | 4 | $716 |
Which boards
Politics 52Mentions 8Weather 5Crypto 4Culture 4Tech 4Sports 2Finance 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
86% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (78% maker / 22% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio86%
Fills measured498
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$994
Taker rebate$276
Maker share78%
Taker share22%
Window2026-05-02 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$89K
Verified lifetime PnL$321K
Verification gap$233K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)