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← All boardsIs 0x3dfb153c… really profitable on Polymarket?
0x3dfb153c197d4c19d3b31c1ecd2c7b6860eeabaf
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. 0x3dfb153c… made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 70 days (2026-04-27 to 2026-10-30), adding up to $7.42M on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$4.74M. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$68K, last month -$906K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 0% of the 622 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 0%Verified PnL#621 of 622
Beats 0%30-day PnL#307 of 308
Beats 92%Win rate#39 of 568
Beats 4%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#562 of 591
Compared with the 622 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board70
Archive span202 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-10-30
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$4.74M
Verified lifetime PnL
$240.32MVolume
93.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-1.78%PnL ÷ Volume
-$68K7-day PnL
-$906K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-31
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$4.74M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $16.2Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$709.2Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$4,695
-1.97% ROI92.1% Win rate · n=406
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
No category in profit; worst is Sports -$1.13M
Top 5 winning markets
- +$547.9KEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5Sports · Over
- +$544.3KMexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceSports · England
- +$266.8KBoston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Sports · Under
- +$255.4KArgentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5Sports · Over
- +$214.7KHouston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxSports · Houston Astros
Top 5 losing markets
- -$401.7KFrance vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Sports · Under / Over
- -$363.1KSan Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSports · San Diego Padres
- -$242.6KColorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersSports · Los Angeles Dodgers
- -$219.6KUnited States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Sports · Under
- -$205.3KMinnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansSports · Minnesota Twins
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-31
-$4.74MVerified lifetime PnL
$12.16MBelow board-day sum
70Days on board
$7.49MBoard-day sum
-$68K7-day PnL
-$906K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $34K |
| 2026-05 | 9 | $1.08M |
| 2026-06 | 10 | $982K |
| 2026-07 | 18 | $2.38M |
| 2026-08 | 11 | $1.10M |
| 2026-09 | 13 | $1.23M |
| 2026-10 | 7 | $679K |
Which boards
Sports 70All markets 63
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
93% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $709K (18% maker / 82% taker); rebate covers 8% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio93%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$709K
Maker rebate$131K
Taker rebate$578K
Maker share18%
Taker share82%
Window2026-04-28 → 2026-10-14
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$415K
Rebate$33K
Net total-$381K
Rebate covers loss8%
Window2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$7.42M
Verified lifetime PnL-$4.74M
Verification gap-$12.16M
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Generated 2026-10-31 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-31 (202 snapshots)