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← All boardsIs roldy really profitable on Polymarket?
0x3e04fbc51adb75418129f6ce2091ae633070564d
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. roldy made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 67 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $205K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$79K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 8% of the 625 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 8%Verified PnL#574 of 625
Beats 88%Win rate#67 of 566
Beats 14%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#506 of 592
Compared with the 625 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board67
Archive span201 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$79K
Verified lifetime PnL
$27.94MVolume
87.6%Win rate (sample) · n=394
-0.22%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-30
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$79.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $739only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$965
-0.28% ROI38.7% Win rate · n=892
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$454.3K · loses the most in Culture -$3,163
Top 5 winning markets
- +$67.6KWill the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$19.9KMaple Leafs vs. CanadiensSports · Canadiens
- +$18.6KIslanders vs. LightningSports · Islanders
- +$12.9KStars vs. SabresSports · Stars
- +$11.3KNHL Playoffs: Golden Knights vs. Oilers (To Advance)Sports · Oilers
Top 5 losing markets
- -$16.1KWill the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?Sports · Yes
- -$10.3KNHL Playoffs: Stars vs. Avalanche (To Advance)Sports · Avalanche
- -$10.1KLightning vs. PanthersSports · Panthers
- -$9,300World Championships: Switzerland/Norway vs. Canada/FinlandSports · Switzerland/Norway
- -$9,180Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?Sports · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-30
-$79KVerified lifetime PnL
$283KBelow board-day sum
67Days on board
$205KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $16K |
| 2026-05 | 13 | $67K |
| 2026-06 | 13 | $48K |
| 2026-07 | 12 | $27K |
| 2026-08 | 17 | $30K |
| 2026-09 | 9 | $16K |
Which boards
Sports 67All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
91% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio91%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-30
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$205K
Verified lifetime PnL-$79K
Verification gap-$283K
Trade on Polymarket
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Archived 2026-10-30 · not refreshed since then · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-30 (201 snapshots)