ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs whig really profitable on Polymarket?
0x40cfb29411d29f4fa0908f2a121297042cccd21d
Short answer
Mostly yes. whig made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 74 days (2026-04-22 to 2026-10-08), adding up to $66K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$312K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$7K, last month +$36K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 76% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 76%Verified PnL#148 of 624
Beats 72%30-day PnL#163 of 594
Beats 44%Win rate#328 of 592
Beats 87%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#78 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board74
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-22
Last seen2026-10-08
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$312K
Verified lifetime PnL
$9.02MVolume
61.5%Win rate (sample) · n=395
3.45%PnL ÷ Volume
$7K7-day PnL
$36K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$312.2K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,081only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$2,383partial
Liquidity rewards$7,388
3.46% ROI61.5% Win rate · n=395
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$217.3K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$48.2KStarmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$23.2KWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$19.6KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · No
- +$15.1KStarmer out by July 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$10.7KWill the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$7,515Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$6,328Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$5,884Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$5,672Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$4,720Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$312KVerified lifetime PnL
$246KEarned off the board
74Days on board
$66KBoard-day sum
$7K7-day PnL
$36K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $3K |
| 2026-05 | 8 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 16 | $29K |
| 2026-07 | 21 | $11K |
| 2026-08 | 12 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 9 | $4K |
| 2026-10 | 4 | $13K |
Which boards
Politics 59Finance 13Sports 5Tech 3Culture 2Mentions 1Weather 1All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
87% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (92% maker / 8% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio87%
Fills measured493
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$2K
Taker rebate$190
Maker share92%
Taker share8%
Window2026-04-09 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$66K
Verified lifetime PnL$312K
Verification gap$246K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)