ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs aenews2 really profitable on Polymarket?
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
Short answer
Mostly yes. aenews2 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 121 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-10-11), adding up to $475K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$2.36M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$15K, last month +$195K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 95% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 95%Verified PnL#26 of 624
Beats 88%30-day PnL#68 of 594
Beats 76%Win rate#139 of 592
Beats 48%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#318 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board121
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-10-11
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$2.36M
Verified lifetime PnL
$252.84MVolume
79.6%Win rate (sample) · n=397
0.88%PnL ÷ Volume
-$15K7-day PnL
$195K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$2.36M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $24.2Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$9,454partial
Liquidity rewards$20.7Kpartial
0.93% ROI53.9% Win rate · n=590
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$1.52M · loses the most in Crypto -$109.8K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$424.7KWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Culture · Yes / No
- +$307.6KWill Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?Politics · Yes
- +$297.6KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$229.4KGOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?Politics · Yes
- +$205.3KKamala Harris wins the popular vote?Politics · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$238.7KWill Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Politics · No
- -$150.1KWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · Yes / No
- -$137.0KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$134.4KWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?Culture · Yes
- -$132.1KWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$2.36MVerified lifetime PnL
$1.88MEarned off the board
121Days on board
$475KBoard-day sum
-$15K7-day PnL
$195K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $432 |
| 2026-04 | 9 | $30K |
| 2026-05 | 22 | $56K |
| 2026-06 | 27 | $77K |
| 2026-07 | 20 | $34K |
| 2026-08 | 25 | $37K |
| 2026-09 | 13 | $17K |
| 2026-10 | 3 | $225K |
Which boards
Politics 65Culture 33Mentions 24Finance 19Weather 16Tech 15All markets 6Crypto 5Sports 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
92% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $9K (74% maker / 26% taker); rebate covers 0% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio92%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$9K
Maker rebate$7K
Taker rebate$2K
Maker share74%
Taker share26%
Window2026-04-08 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$999K
Rebate$2K
Net total-$997K
Rebate covers loss0%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$475K
Verified lifetime PnL$2.36M
Verification gap$1.88M
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)