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← All boardsIs TradeDeficitArchitect really profitable on Polymarket?
0x477f156a229f1a174fdf945c778b7362dd2b19aa
Short answer
Mostly yes. TradeDeficitArchitect made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 58 days (2026-05-13 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $17K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$190K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$2K, last month +$6K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 69% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 69%Verified PnL#190 of 624
Beats 49%30-day PnL#299 of 594
Beats 46%Win rate#318 of 592
Beats 75%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#154 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board58
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-13
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$190K
Verified lifetime PnL
$8.84MVolume
62.6%Win rate (sample) · n=398
2.14%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$6K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$190.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $363only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$305partial
Liquidity rewards$2,070
2.15% ROI60% Win rate · n=417
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$123.0K · loses the most in Other -$23.8K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$20.7KWill Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Sports · Yes
- +$13.8KWill Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Michigan town hall?Politics · No
- +$11.8KWill Israel invade Lebanon in September?Politics · Yes / No
- +$10.6KWill Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on October 9?Culture · No
- +$10.3KWill Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$13.4KWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · No
- -$10.2KWill Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?Politics · Yes
- -$9,741Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?Other · No
- -$9,324Will Trump say "trans" during his Wisconsin speech?Culture · Yes
- -$7,880Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$190KVerified lifetime PnL
$173KEarned off the board
58Days on board
$17KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$6K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 5 | $2K |
| 2026-06 | 17 | $6K |
| 2026-07 | 12 | $2K |
| 2026-08 | 17 | $6K |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $730 |
Which boards
Politics 30Crypto 17Culture 7Sports 5Weather 2Finance 2Mentions 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
85% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $305 (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio85%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-23
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$305
Maker rebate$305
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-02-03 → 2026-10-10
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$17K
Verified lifetime PnL$190K
Verification gap$173K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)