ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs troim really profitable on Polymarket?
0x4a2be7a7e6e3b41dc2de00706b4c09660ca9af20
Short answer
Mostly yes. troim made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 114 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $54K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$93K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$5K, last month +$20K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Tech traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 59% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 59%Verified PnL#253 of 624
Beats 67%30-day PnL#196 of 594
Beats 82%Win rate#106 of 592
Beats 30%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#434 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board114
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$93K
Verified lifetime PnL
$29.30MVolume
83.2%Win rate (sample) · n=399
0.24%PnL ÷ Volume
$5K7-day PnL
$20K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$92.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $115only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$4,261partial
Liquidity rewards$8,304
0.32% ROI40.2% Win rate · n=825
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$270.1K · loses the most in Crypto -$6,862
Top 5 winning markets
- +$31.9KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$28.9KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · Yes / No
- +$18.6KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Politics · Yes
- +$18.3KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · Yes / No
- +$12.0KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$9,448US forces enter Iran by April 30?Politics · No
- -$8,073US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Politics · No
- -$6,400US forces enter Iran by December 31?Politics · No
- -$5,343US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Politics · Yes
- -$4,260Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$93KVerified lifetime PnL
$39KEarned off the board
114Days on board
$54KBoard-day sum
$5K7-day PnL
$20K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $273 |
| 2026-05 | 26 | $12K |
| 2026-06 | 19 | $17K |
| 2026-07 | 24 | $7K |
| 2026-08 | 25 | $14K |
| 2026-09 | 13 | $2K |
| 2026-10 | 3 | $2K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $687 |
Which boards
Tech 54Politics 38Finance 35Culture 19Crypto 16Weather 13Sports 11Mentions 6
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
95% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $4K (99% maker / 1% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio95%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$4K
Maker rebate$4K
Taker rebate$51
Maker share99%
Taker share1%
Window2026-04-08 → 2026-10-29
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$54K
Verified lifetime PnL$93K
Verification gap$39K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)