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Is Sassy-Bucket really profitable on Polymarket?
0x4bff30af91642dc7d2b19a8664378fe55c45fc26
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. Sassy-Bucket made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 76 days (2026-04-27 to 2026-11-04), adding up to $8.96M on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$5.61M. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$743K, last month -$1.88M.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 0% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 0%Verified PnL#1155 of 1156
Beats 0%30-day PnL#812 of 812
Beats 8%Win rate#876 of 963
Beats 3%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#961 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board76
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-11-04
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$5.61M
Verified lifetime PnL
$155.12MVolume
41.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-2.47%PnL ÷ Volume
-$743K7-day PnL
-$1.88M30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$5.61M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $132.2Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$346.4Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$874
-3.62% ROI40.7% Win rate · n=415
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
No category in profit; worst is Sports -$2.92M
Top 5 winning markets
- +$372.0KRavens vs. FalconsSports · Ravens
- +$301.8KTexas State vs. San Diego StateSports · San Diego State
- +$291.4KSan Diego Padres vs. Seattle MarinersSports · San Diego Padres
- +$286.6KUFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)Sports · Arnold Allen
- +$276.1KUFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)Sports · Grant Dawson
Top 5 losing markets
- -$588.5K76ers vs. CelticsSports · Celtics
- -$512.5KUFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)Sports · Jared Gordon
- -$451.1KUFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)Sports · Malcolm Wellmaker
- -$435.9KUFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)Sports · Allan Nascimento
- -$388.7KUFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Prelims)Sports · Andre Petroski
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 11 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$710.5K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$5.61MVerified lifetime PnL
$14.57MBelow board-day sum
76Days on board
$9.01MBoard-day sum
-$743K7-day PnL
-$1.88M30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $76K |
| 2026-05 | 11 | $1.63M |
| 2026-06 | 16 | $2.49M |
| 2026-07 | 11 | $1.28M |
| 2026-08 | 16 | $1.44M |
| 2026-09 | 12 | $629K |
| 2026-10 | 5 | $1.04M |
| 2026-11 | 3 | $421K |
Which boards
Sports 76All markets 65
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
96% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $346K (30% maker / 70% taker); rebate covers 7% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio96%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-27
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$346K
Maker rebate$104K
Taker rebate$242K
Maker share30%
Taker share70%
Window2026-04-26 → 2026-11-05
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$1.38M
Rebate$91K
Net total-$1.29M
Rebate covers loss7%
Window2026-10-06 → 2026-11-05
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$8.96M
Verified lifetime PnL-$5.61M
Verification gap-$14.57M
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)