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Is e46m3 really profitable on Polymarket?
0x4f1d5ae26fc31472966e951af3183308736d8de2
Short answer
Mostly yes. e46m3 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 96 days (2026-04-29 to 2026-10-11), adding up to $260K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$986K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$856K, last month +$4.16M.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 89% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 89%Verified PnL#64 of 624
Beats 99%30-day PnL#2 of 594
Beats 29%Win rate#418 of 592
Beats 89%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#66 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board96
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-29
Last seen2026-10-11
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$986K
Verified lifetime PnL
$19.48MVolume
52.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
3.75%PnL ÷ Volume
$856K7-day PnL
$4.16M30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$986.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $234only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$7,841partial
Liquidity rewards$6,980
5.06% ROI24.4% Win rate · n=858
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$852.0K · loses the most in Sports -$69.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$220.0KWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · No / Yes
- +$106.5KWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics · No
- +$68.8KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · No
- +$61.0KWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics · No
- +$55.9KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$59.5KWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · No
- -$59.4KWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · No
- -$48.1KWill Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?Sports · No
- -$45.2KWill Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · No
- -$41.9KWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$986KVerified lifetime PnL
$727KEarned off the board
96Days on board
$260KBoard-day sum
$856K7-day PnL
$4.16M30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $300 |
| 2026-05 | 17 | $31K |
| 2026-06 | 23 | $36K |
| 2026-07 | 9 | $16K |
| 2026-08 | 25 | $44K |
| 2026-09 | 19 | $101K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $32K |
Which boards
Politics 74Sports 54Tech 37Finance 34Culture 20Weather 19All markets 10Crypto 6
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
15% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $8K (55% maker / 45% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio15%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$8K
Maker rebate$4K
Taker rebate$4K
Maker share55%
Taker share45%
Window2026-04-21 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$135K
Rebate$950
Net total$136K
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$260K
Verified lifetime PnL$986K
Verification gap$727K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)