ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs HomeRunHazard really profitable on Polymarket?
0x5268527977f700f9bf9b6d5cd843859e4e70135d
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. HomeRunHazard made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 100 days (2026-04-27 to 2026-10-31), adding up to $8.93M on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$3.01M: a gap of $5.92M that can only come from losing days the board never shows. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$354K, last month +$1.61M.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 97% of the 622 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 97%Verified PnL#19 of 622
Beats 98%30-day PnL#6 of 308
Beats 40%Win rate#339 of 568
Beats 35%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#381 of 591
Compared with the 622 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board100
Archive span202 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-10-31
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$3.01M
Verified lifetime PnL
$419.48MVolume
58%Win rate (sample) · n=400
0.49%PnL ÷ Volume
$354K7-day PnL
$1.61M30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-31
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$3.01M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $10.6Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$931.6Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$53.5K
0.72% ROI26.6% Win rate · n=872
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
No category in profit; worst is Sports -$527.8K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$322.6KSpread: KC (-5.5)Sports · IND / KC
- +$104.8KCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta BravesSports · Cincinnati Reds
- +$81.4K76ers vs. KnicksSports · 76ers
- +$81.4KRams vs. Broncos: O/U 44.5Sports · Over
- +$81.0KSan Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Sports · Over
Top 5 losing markets
- -$294.1KSpread: SF (-12.5)Sports · MIA
- -$161.3KWimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Coco GauffSports · Jessica Pegula
- -$159.1KCleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesSports · New York Yankees
- -$112.8KCincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Flavio CobolliSports · Tommy Paul
- -$106.9KSpread: Broncos (-3.5)Sports · Rams
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-31
$3.01MVerified lifetime PnL
$5.92MBelow board-day sum
100Days on board
$9.18MBoard-day sum
$354K7-day PnL
$1.61M30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $11K |
| 2026-05 | 16 | $564K |
| 2026-06 | 15 | $492K |
| 2026-07 | 20 | $429K |
| 2026-08 | 16 | $733K |
| 2026-09 | 17 | $4.86M |
| 2026-10 | 13 | $2.09M |
Which boards
Sports 100All markets 76
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
63% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $932K (34% maker / 66% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Head-to-heads with other top wallets:
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio63%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$932K
Maker rebate$321K
Taker rebate$611K
Maker share34%
Taker share66%
Window2026-04-25 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$58.21M
Rebate$211K
Net total$58.42M
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$8.93M
Verified lifetime PnL$3.01M
Verification gap-$5.92M
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-10-31 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-31 (202 snapshots)