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← All boardsIs Arbguy really profitable on Polymarket?
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. Arbguy made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 86 days (2026-03-30 to 2026-10-11), adding up to $632K on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$493K: a gap of $138K that can only come from losing days the board never shows. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$17K, last month -$13K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 81% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 81%Verified PnL#117 of 624
Beats 12%30-day PnL#522 of 594
Beats 16%Win rate#495 of 592
Beats 45%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#339 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board86
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-30
Last seen2026-10-11
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$493K
Verified lifetime PnL
$63.27MVolume
44.9%Win rate (sample) · n=392
0.77%PnL ÷ Volume
-$17K7-day PnL
-$13K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$493.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $4,981only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,654partial
Liquidity rewards$8,134
0.78% ROI44.2% Win rate · n=398
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$776.1K · loses the most in Crypto -$55.7K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$448.9KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$200.6KWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$132.8KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$106.9KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Politics · Yes
- +$104.3KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$97.6KUS forces enter Iran by March 31?Politics · Yes
- -$85.8KWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics · Yes
- -$62.8K Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics · Yes
- -$59.4KUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Politics · No
- -$57.2KWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Sports · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$493KVerified lifetime PnL
$138KBelow board-day sum
86Days on board
$632KBoard-day sum
-$17K7-day PnL
-$13K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $18K |
| 2026-04 | 5 | $51K |
| 2026-05 | 19 | $48K |
| 2026-06 | 20 | $459K |
| 2026-07 | 18 | $24K |
| 2026-08 | 10 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 11 | $16K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $13K |
Which boards
Politics 58Crypto 29Mentions 5Finance 4Sports 4Culture 2All markets 2Weather 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
92% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (78% maker / 22% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio92%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-21
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$362
Maker share78%
Taker share22%
Window2026-05-08 → 2026-10-09
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$632K
Verified lifetime PnL$493K
Verification gap-$138K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)