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Is molodoyy really profitable on Polymarket?
0x564f22744b7941ade18d5e0e4f347c30e3057026
Short answer
Mostly yes. molodoyy made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 90 days (2026-04-28 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $9K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$46K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$2K, last month +$11K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Tech traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 48% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 48%Verified PnL#322 of 624
Beats 60%30-day PnL#236 of 594
Beats 14%Win rate#504 of 592
Beats 80%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#122 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board90
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-28
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$46K
Verified lifetime PnL
$1.72MVolume
43.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
2.49%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$11K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$46.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,989only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$581partial
Liquidity rewards$1,182
2.68% ROI37.7% Win rate · n=462
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Tech & science +$21.4K · loses the most in Sports -$271
Top 5 winning markets
- +$1,788Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$1,695Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech & science · No
- +$1,327Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?Tech & science · No
- +$1,129Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?Finance · Yes
- +$1,019Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,672Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$1,200Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?Tech & science · No
- -$1,169Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$1,038Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · No
- -$1,022Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$46KVerified lifetime PnL
$37KEarned off the board
90Days on board
$9KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$11K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | $279 |
| 2026-05 | 11 | $657 |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $1K |
| 2026-07 | 27 | $4K |
| 2026-08 | 22 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 14 | $2K |
Which boards
Tech 56Finance 31Culture 24Politics 5Mentions 4Weather 4
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
37% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $581 (21% maker / 79% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio37%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$581
Maker rebate$120
Taker rebate$461
Maker share21%
Taker share79%
Window2026-04-17 → 2026-10-11
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$9K
Verified lifetime PnL$46K
Verification gap$37K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)