ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs floatingraft really profitable on Polymarket?
0x56ad6bd05999e0f33ea9c05a48ccb1364a46f13e
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. floatingraft made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 83 days (2026-04-26 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $356K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$195K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$82K, last month +$242K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Crypto traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 6% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 6%Verified PnL#586 of 624
Beats 90%30-day PnL#57 of 594
Beats 41%Win rate#348 of 592
Beats 1%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#609 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board83
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-26
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$195K
Verified lifetime PnL
$4.42MVolume
58.4%Win rate · n=113
-4.45%PnL ÷ Volume
$82K7-day PnL
$242K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$195.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $19.0Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$5,260partial
Liquidity rewards$89
-4.41% ROI58.4% Win rate · n=113
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$65.3K · loses the most in Crypto -$177.3K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$45.5KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$32.0KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics · No
- +$19.6KWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · No
- +$18.7KFed rate hike in 2026?Finance · Yes
- +$17.9KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$82.8KWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · No
- -$70.2KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · No
- -$65.6KWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · No
- -$54.0KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- -$46.2KWill Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?Crypto · Yes / No
Covers all 116 closed positions this wallet has. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$195KVerified lifetime PnL
$551KBelow board-day sum
83Days on board
$356KBoard-day sum
$82K7-day PnL
$242K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $343 |
| 2026-05 | 14 | $35K |
| 2026-06 | 13 | $19K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $10K |
| 2026-08 | 17 | $11K |
| 2026-09 | 11 | $105K |
| 2026-10 | 7 | $152K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $23K |
Which boards
Crypto 67Politics 18Sports 7Finance 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
56% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $5K (65% maker / 35% taker); rebate covers 1% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio56%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-27
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$5K
Maker rebate$3K
Taker rebate$2K
Maker share65%
Taker share35%
Window2026-04-03 → 2026-10-07
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$35K
Rebate$270
Net total-$35K
Rebate covers loss1%
Window2026-09-30 → 2026-10-30
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$356K
Verified lifetime PnL-$195K
Verification gap-$551K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)