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← All boardsIs balthazar really profitable on Polymarket?
0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318
Short answer
Mostly yes. balthazar made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 146 days (2026-04-12 to 2026-09-24), adding up to $231K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.20M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$296K, last month +$1.33M.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 91% of the 622 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 91%Verified PnL#52 of 622
Beats 97%30-day PnL#8 of 308
Beats 26%Win rate#420 of 568
Beats 60%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#236 of 591
Compared with the 622 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board146
Archive span202 days
First seen2026-04-12
Last seen2026-09-24
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$1.20M
Verified lifetime PnL
$74.98MVolume
51.1%Win rate (sample) · n=397
1.41%PnL ÷ Volume
$296K7-day PnL
$1.33M30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-31
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.20M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,006only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$38.0Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$34.3Kpartial
1.60% ROI24.4% Win rate · n=831
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$762.3K · loses the most in Crypto -$43.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$116.4KWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · Yes / No
- +$107.5KWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics · Yes / No
- +$81.3KWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Politics · Yes
- +$61.7KWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$52.4KWill MrBeast's latest video get 76 million or more views on day 6?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$48.4KWill MrBeast's latest video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 6?Culture · Yes
- -$42.9KWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Politics · No
- -$41.9KWill the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Politics · Yes / No
- -$40.9KWill Axiom be accused of insider trading?Crypto · No
- -$27.6KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-31
$1.20MVerified lifetime PnL
$967KEarned off the board
146Days on board
$231KBoard-day sum
$296K7-day PnL
$1.33M30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 5 | $9K |
| 2026-05 | 26 | $31K |
| 2026-06 | 30 | $74K |
| 2026-07 | 31 | $31K |
| 2026-08 | 31 | $50K |
| 2026-09 | 23 | $35K |
Which boards
Politics 103Sports 74Tech 65Weather 58Finance 55Culture 50Crypto 34All markets 8
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
34% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $38K (45% maker / 55% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio34%
Fills measured485
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scope0 days
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$38K
Maker rebate$17K
Taker rebate$21K
Maker share45%
Taker share55%
Window2026-04-03 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$634K
Rebate$3K
Net total-$631K
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$231K
Verified lifetime PnL$1.20M
Verification gap$967K
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Generated 2026-10-31 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-31 (202 snapshots)