ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs lava-lava really profitable on Polymarket?
0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a
Short answer
Mostly yes. lava-lava made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 59 days (2026-04-13 to 2026-09-23), adding up to $305K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.22M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$259K, last month +$256K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 91% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 91%Verified PnL#51 of 624
Beats 91%30-day PnL#53 of 594
Beats 9%Win rate#535 of 592
Beats 78%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#132 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board59
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-13
Last seen2026-09-23
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$1.22M
Verified lifetime PnL
$41.62MVolume
37.3%Win rate (sample) · n=399
2.41%PnL ÷ Volume
$259K7-day PnL
$256K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.22M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $306only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$6,003partial
Liquidity rewards$20.6Kpartial
2.92% ROI36.7% Win rate · n=439
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$1.11M · loses the most in Finance -$6,380
Top 5 winning markets
- +$118.9KWill Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Politics · Yes
- +$111.8KWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Politics · No / Yes
- +$102.6KWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes / No
- +$74.1KWill Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?Politics · Yes
- +$71.0KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$89.2KWill Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Politics · Yes / No
- -$83.3KWill Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Politics · Yes
- -$36.0KWill the Progress Party (FrP) win 22% or more of vote in Norwegian election?Politics · No
- -$28.6KTrump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%Politics · No / Yes
- -$24.6KWill the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$1.22MVerified lifetime PnL
$912KEarned off the board
59Days on board
$305KBoard-day sum
$259K7-day PnL
$256K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 5 | $240K |
| 2026-05 | 9 | $5K |
| 2026-06 | 21 | $46K |
| 2026-07 | 3 | $390 |
| 2026-08 | 10 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 11 | $12K |
Which boards
Politics 59All markets 1Sports 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
91% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $6K (90% maker / 10% taker); recent window rebate share 0%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio91%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$6K
Maker rebate$5K
Taker rebate$597
Maker share90%
Taker share10%
Window2026-04-08 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$226K
Rebate$935
Net total$227K
Rebate share0%
Window2026-09-30 → 2026-10-30
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$305K
Verified lifetime PnL$1.22M
Verification gap$912K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)