ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs Waterfall really profitable on Polymarket?
0x63850ce907044eac77fba13d59f263ade68093f2
Short answer
Mostly yes. Waterfall made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 59 days (2026-05-01 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $8K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$22K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$5K, last month +$6K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Culture traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 35% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 35%Verified PnL#401 of 624
Beats 50%30-day PnL#293 of 594
Beats 80%Win rate#114 of 592
Beats 46%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#334 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board59
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-01
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$22K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.74MVolume
82.7%Win rate (sample) · n=398
0.79%PnL ÷ Volume
$5K7-day PnL
$6K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$21.7K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,045only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$577partial
Liquidity rewards$1,279
0.79% ROI82.7% Win rate · n=398
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$17.6K · loses the most in Crypto -$17.3K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$5,928Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?Culture · No
- +$4,532Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?Culture · Yes
- +$2,236Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$2,204Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?Culture · No
- +$1,930Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribed" during his next YouTube video?Culture · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$13.2KWill MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3?Culture · Yes / No
- -$8,267Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$6,006Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$5,057Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Other · Yes / No
- -$3,926Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$22KVerified lifetime PnL
$14KEarned off the board
59Days on board
$8KBoard-day sum
$5K7-day PnL
$6K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 5 | $602 |
| 2026-06 | 17 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 18 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 11 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 8 | $1K |
Which boards
Culture 25Tech 25Mentions 16
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
58% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $577 (96% maker / 4% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio58%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-05
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$577
Maker rebate$552
Taker rebate$24
Maker share96%
Taker share4%
Window2026-01-10 → 2026-10-20
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$8K
Verified lifetime PnL$22K
Verification gap$14K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)