ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs Dropper really profitable on Polymarket?
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Short answer
Mostly yes. Dropper made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 88 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-18), adding up to $70K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.56M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$26K, last month +$23K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 93% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 93%Verified PnL#42 of 624
Beats 68%30-day PnL#187 of 594
Beats 43%Win rate#335 of 592
Beats 83%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#103 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board88
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-18
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$1.56M
Verified lifetime PnL
$52.30MVolume
60.8%Win rate (sample) · n=395
2.80%PnL ÷ Volume
$26K7-day PnL
$23K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.56M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $5,122only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$3,802partial
Liquidity rewards$6,711partial
2.98% ROI56.5% Win rate · n=425
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$512.6K · loses the most in Other -$3,782
Top 5 winning markets
- +$134.2KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$125.6KWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17?Weather · Yes
- +$121.1KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · No / Yes
- +$61.7KWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · Yes
- +$59.6KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Finance · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$49.9KWill Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?Politics · Yes
- -$40.0KWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17?Weather · Yes
- -$40.0KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$26.7KWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Culture · Yes / No
- -$26.7K49ers vs. RaidersSports · Raiders
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$1.56MVerified lifetime PnL
$1.49MEarned off the board
88Days on board
$70KBoard-day sum
$26K7-day PnL
$23K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $7K |
| 2026-05 | 27 | $24K |
| 2026-06 | 20 | $25K |
| 2026-07 | 17 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 15 | $10K |
| 2026-09 | 5 | $337 |
Which boards
Politics 43Sports 37Crypto 20Weather 10Culture 4Mentions 3All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
95% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $4K (89% maker / 11% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio95%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-23
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$4K
Maker rebate$3K
Taker rebate$400
Maker share89%
Taker share11%
Window2026-04-30 → 2026-10-10
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$70K
Verified lifetime PnL$1.56M
Verification gap$1.49M
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)