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← All boardsIs groth really profitable on Polymarket?
0x71abe97b83eaba3f06cb04fd4d9a03ee37d2f015
Short answer
Mostly yes. groth made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 69 days (2026-05-02 to 2026-10-09), adding up to $20K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$146K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$316, last month +$452.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 66% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 66%Verified PnL#208 of 624
Beats 32%30-day PnL#401 of 594
Beats 69%Win rate#178 of 592
Beats 93%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#39 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board69
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-05-02
Last seen2026-10-09
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$146K
Verified lifetime PnL
$2.74MVolume
74.5%Win rate (sample) · n=400
5.25%PnL ÷ Volume
$3167-day PnL
$45230-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$146.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $95only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$354partial
Liquidity rewards$2,107
5.34% ROI62.7% Win rate · n=475
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$88.9K · loses the most in Other -$11.78
Top 5 winning markets
- +$19.2KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics · No
- +$14.3KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Finance · No / Yes
- +$14.0KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Finance · No / Yes
- +$11.2KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Politics · No
- +$11.0KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?Finance · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$5,478Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Politics · No
- -$1,545US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$1,286Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Politics · Yes
- -$1,170US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Politics · No
- -$1,123Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$146KVerified lifetime PnL
$126KEarned off the board
69Days on board
$20KBoard-day sum
$3167-day PnL
$45230-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 6 | $1K |
| 2026-06 | 11 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $4K |
| 2026-08 | 18 | $9K |
| 2026-09 | 14 | $2K |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $911 |
Which boards
Politics 47Finance 33Tech 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
95% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $354 (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio95%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-01
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$354
Maker rebate$354
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-03-27 → 2026-10-23
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$20K
Verified lifetime PnL$146K
Verification gap$126K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)