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← All boardsIs Contentious-Dinnerdate really profitable on Polymarket?
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da
Short answer
Mostly yes. Contentious-Dinnerdate made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 93 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $31K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$104K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$2K, last month +$7K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Tech traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 61% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 61%Verified PnL#243 of 624
Beats 51%30-day PnL#288 of 594
Beats 71%Win rate#169 of 592
Beats 83%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#105 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board93
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$104K
Verified lifetime PnL
$3.48MVolume
75.6%Win rate (sample) · n=397
2.76%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$7K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$103.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $2,313only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,423partial
Liquidity rewards$3,830
2.98% ROI48.2% Win rate · n=622
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Tech & science +$88.0K · loses the most in Crypto -$290
Top 5 winning markets
- +$7,158Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$5,534Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?Tech & science · Yes / No
- +$5,352Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Finance · Yes / No
- +$4,809Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$4,765Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,168Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$1,918Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Finance · Yes
- -$1,917Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$1,777Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Finance · Yes
- -$1,566Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Tech & science · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$104KVerified lifetime PnL
$73KEarned off the board
93Days on board
$31KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$7K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $358 |
| 2026-05 | 11 | $3K |
| 2026-06 | 16 | $4K |
| 2026-07 | 23 | $5K |
| 2026-08 | 22 | $7K |
| 2026-09 | 15 | $6K |
| 2026-10 | 4 | $5K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $858 |
Which boards
Tech 65Finance 52Politics 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
83% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (69% maker / 31% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio83%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$985
Taker rebate$438
Maker share69%
Taker share31%
Window2026-04-16 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$31K
Verified lifetime PnL$104K
Verification gap$73K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)