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Is probability really profitable on Polymarket?

0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8

Short answer

Mostly yes. probability made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 89 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $64K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$120K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 70% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 70%Verified PnL#336 of 1130

Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board89
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$120K

Verified lifetime PnL

2026-04 2026-09

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$120.1K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $21only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$2,490
— ROI— Win rate

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleBuys near-certain outcomes52% of 485 buys at ≥ 90¢Holds to settlementSells are only 0% of turnover in the last 500 fills (over 5.9 h)Mainly politics99% of last 500 fills (over 5.9 h) are politics marketsRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Sports +$163.7K · loses the most in Tech & science -$4,727

Sports301 pos.+$163.7K
Politics90 pos.+$38.8K
Other2 pos.+$7,284
Finance2 pos.+$1,777
Culture1 pos.-$3,283
Tech & science4 pos.-$4,727

Top 5 winning markets

  1. +$22.4KLivesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana TararudeeSports · Lanlana Tararudee
  2. +$18.9KWill Modena FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?Sports · Yes
  3. +$17.2KWill Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?Sports · Yes
  4. +$16.8KWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
  5. +$14.4KWill Runcorn Linnets FC vs. Buxton FC end in a draw?Sports · No

Top 5 losing markets

  1. -$9,340Will Modena FC win on 2026-08-08?Sports · No
  2. -$9,311Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-08-08?Sports · No
  3. -$9,133Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · Yes
  4. -$8,697Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?Tech & science · Yes
  5. -$5,680Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · No / Yes

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 9 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$1,360). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04

Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →

$120KVerified lifetime PnL
$56KEarned off the board
89Days on board
$64KBoard-day sum

Month by month

MonthDays on a boardSummed PnL
2026-04 3 $1K
2026-05 16 $6K
2026-06 20 $17K
2026-07 18 $21K
2026-08 15 $18K
2026-09 17 $2K

Which boards

Sports 55Politics 34Finance 22Tech 14All markets 2Culture 1

Method breakdown

No method layer measured yet for this address.

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.

Visible rebates

Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.

Profit composition

No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$64K
Verified lifetime PnL$120K
Verification gap$56K

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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)