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← All boardsIs DonaldinhoTrumpito really profitable on Polymarket?
0x7523cafcee7bcf2db9a79d80e0d79b88a9a54c4c
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. DonaldinhoTrumpito made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 71 days (2026-04-30 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $574K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$319K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$5K, last month +$7K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 5% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 5%Verified PnL#591 of 624
Beats 51%30-day PnL#289 of 594
Beats 55%Win rate#266 of 592
Beats 11%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#549 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board71
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-30
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$319K
Verified lifetime PnL
$56.26MVolume
67.6%Win rate (sample) · n=386
-0.59%PnL ÷ Volume
$5K7-day PnL
$7K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$319.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $3,686only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$6,025partial
Liquidity rewards$6,245
-0.57% ROI57.4% Win rate · n=455
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$185.4K · loses the most in Sports -$201.8K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$184.1KWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?Politics · Yes
- +$161.4KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$125.4KWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- +$98.9KWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports · Yes
- +$92.5KWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$234.5KWill a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- -$204.0KWill Israel invade Lebanon in September?Politics · Yes
- -$189.0KKnicks vs. SpursSports · Spurs
- -$131.6KWill a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- -$85.9KWill a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$319KVerified lifetime PnL
$893KBelow board-day sum
71Days on board
$574KBoard-day sum
$5K7-day PnL
$7K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $255 |
| 2026-05 | 21 | $24K |
| 2026-06 | 12 | $475K |
| 2026-07 | 11 | $5K |
| 2026-08 | 15 | $68K |
| 2026-09 | 11 | $2K |
Which boards
Politics 59Sports 14Mentions 5Crypto 5All markets 4Culture 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
96% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $6K (96% maker / 4% taker); rebate covers 0% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio96%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-16
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$6K
Maker rebate$6K
Taker rebate$267
Maker share96%
Taker share4%
Window2026-01-27 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$187K
Rebate$225
Net total-$187K
Rebate covers loss0%
Window2026-09-29 → 2026-10-29
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$574K
Verified lifetime PnL-$319K
Verification gap-$893K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)