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← All boardsIs HorribleWork really profitable on Polymarket?
0x78048aa26ac1967566b8ed11910b529e5f2d7025
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. HorribleWork made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 64 days (2026-04-15 to 2026-10-03), adding up to $93K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$408K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$999, last month +$17K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 4% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 4%Verified PnL#598 of 624
Beats 63%30-day PnL#215 of 594
Beats 86%Win rate#83 of 592
Beats 6%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#579 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board64
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-15
Last seen2026-10-03
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$408K
Verified lifetime PnL
$27.67MVolume
86.6%Win rate (sample) · n=395
-1.52%PnL ÷ Volume
$9997-day PnL
$17K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$407.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $5,004only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$4,091partial
Liquidity rewards$2,500
-1.47% ROI62.7% Win rate · n=545
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$285.7K · loses the most in Politics -$245.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$224.2KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$85.6KWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$78.6KUFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Justin Gaethje
- +$53.5KOusmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsSports · Yes
- +$48.7KJulián Quiñones: 1+ goalsSports · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$127.4KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$121.4KGovernment shutdown on Saturday?Politics · Yes / No
- -$70.9KWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes / No
- -$41.5KWill Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Sports · Yes / No
- -$34.0KNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$408KVerified lifetime PnL
$500KBelow board-day sum
64Days on board
$93KBoard-day sum
$9997-day PnL
$17K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 8 | $18K |
| 2026-05 | 25 | $20K |
| 2026-06 | 15 | $32K |
| 2026-07 | 7 | $5K |
| 2026-08 | 6 | $10K |
| 2026-09 | 2 | $42 |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $7K |
Which boards
Sports 32Politics 17Finance 10Mentions 8Crypto 8Culture 3Tech 3All markets 2Weather 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
39% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $4K (85% maker / 15% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio39%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-04
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$4K
Maker rebate$3K
Taker rebate$618
Maker share85%
Taker share15%
Window2026-02-05 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$93K
Verified lifetime PnL-$408K
Verification gap-$500K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)