ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs Car really profitable on Polymarket?
0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b
Short answer
Mostly yes. Car made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 110 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-10-30), adding up to $97K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.54M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$9K, last month +$21K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 93% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 93%Verified PnL#43 of 624
Beats 67%30-day PnL#194 of 594
Beats 40%Win rate#355 of 592
Beats 47%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#328 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board110
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-10-30
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$1.54M
Verified lifetime PnL
$184.69MVolume
57.9%Win rate (sample) · n=387
0.82%PnL ÷ Volume
$9K7-day PnL
$21K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.54M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $806only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$3,775partial
Liquidity rewards$38.5Kpartial
0.83% ROI57.9% Win rate · n=387
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$442.7K · loses the most in Weather -$2,036
Top 5 winning markets
- +$45.4KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$33.1KWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$32.7KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$28.0KIsrael x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?Politics · Yes
- +$25.3KWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics · No / Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$41.1KWill the government shutdown end November 12?Politics · Yes
- -$18.7KUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- -$18.1KThailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?Politics · Yes / No
- -$15.0KIsrael x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?Politics · Yes
- -$14.7KIsrael x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$1.54MVerified lifetime PnL
$1.44MEarned off the board
110Days on board
$97KBoard-day sum
$9K7-day PnL
$21K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $22K |
| 2026-04 | 3 | $4K |
| 2026-05 | 21 | $10K |
| 2026-06 | 22 | $25K |
| 2026-07 | 27 | $14K |
| 2026-08 | 23 | $12K |
| 2026-09 | 9 | $1K |
| 2026-10 | 3 | $7K |
Which boards
Politics 54Crypto 28Sports 19Finance 16Mentions 15Tech 13Culture 12Weather 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
96% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $4K (84% maker / 16% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio96%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$4K
Maker rebate$3K
Taker rebate$621
Maker share84%
Taker share16%
Window2026-01-09 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$97K
Verified lifetime PnL$1.54M
Verification gap$1.44M
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)