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Is bmtr really profitable on Polymarket?
0x7d1bb9f000e5fce13db3a0927b64aa38e69de75c
Short answer
Mostly yes. bmtr made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 70 days (2026-04-20 to 2026-09-19), adding up to $6K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$10K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Tech traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 36% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 36%Verified PnL#733 of 1156
Beats 32%Win rate#652 of 963
Beats 75%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#242 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board70
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-04-20
Last seen2026-09-19
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$10K
Verified lifetime PnL
$734KVolume
55.5%Win rate (sample) · n=389
2.17%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$9,610
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $128only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$1,218
1.31% ROI53.6% Win rate · n=403
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$10.3K · loses the most in Finance -$2,751
Top 5 winning markets
- +$3,231Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Tech & science · Yes
- +$2,032Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?Tech & science · No
- +$1,921Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?Politics · No / Yes
- +$1,466Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$1,438Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2,506Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Finance · Yes
- -$2,086Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- -$1,747Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Tech & science · Yes
- -$1,124Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Tech & science · Yes
- -$1,109Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 14 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$4,619). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$10KVerified lifetime PnL
$3KEarned off the board
70Days on board
$6KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $440 |
| 2026-05 | 16 | $2K |
| 2026-06 | 19 | $2K |
| 2026-07 | 10 | $652 |
| 2026-08 | 12 | $1K |
| 2026-09 | 9 | $432 |
Which boards
Tech 60Politics 14Finance 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
84% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio84%
Fills measured478
Window ends2026-10-01
Window scope28 days
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$6K
Verified lifetime PnL$10K
Verification gap$3K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)