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Is Mr-Krabs really profitable on Polymarket?
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Short answer
Mostly yes. Mr-Krabs made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 77 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $25K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$50K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$14K, last month -$23K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 50% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 50%Verified PnL#311 of 624
Beats 9%30-day PnL#537 of 594
Beats 66%Win rate#200 of 592
Beats 49%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#311 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board77
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$50K
Verified lifetime PnL
$9.00MVolume
72.4%Win rate (sample) · n=398
0.91%PnL ÷ Volume
-$14K7-day PnL
-$23K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$49.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $774only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$638partial
Liquidity rewards$2,731
0.55% ROI72.4% Win rate · n=398
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$12.3K · loses the most in Politics -$42.3K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$16.9KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$9,561US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$8,640 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics · No
- +$8,221MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · No
- +$6,812Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Culture · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$16.2KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · No
- -$12.5KWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Sports · No
- -$12.5KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics · Yes
- -$12.3KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- -$8,913US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$50KVerified lifetime PnL
$25KEarned off the board
77Days on board
$25KBoard-day sum
-$14K7-day PnL
-$23K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 17 | $10K |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $4K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $5K |
| 2026-08 | 14 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 9 | $1K |
Which boards
Politics 59Tech 14Culture 11Sports 5Crypto 2Finance 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
89% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $638 (98% maker / 2% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio89%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$638
Maker rebate$627
Taker rebate$11
Maker share98%
Taker share2%
Window2026-04-27 → 2026-10-10
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$25K
Verified lifetime PnL$50K
Verification gap$25K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)