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Is gabigol really profitable on Polymarket?

Name: Is gabigol really profitable on Polymarket? Verified PnL vs leaderboard
Creator: ProbPocket

0x885278f0e304bc2d53f805af2ab779cb6011c569

Short answer

Mostly yes. gabigol made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 74 days (2026-04-27 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $50K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$313K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$1K, last month +$389.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 81% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 81%Verified PnL#205 of 1130

Beats 31%30-day PnL#557 of 810

Beats 41%Win rate#541 of 928

Beats 54%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#433 of 954

Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board74

Archive span206 days

First seen2026-04-27

Last seen2026-09-21

VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$313K

Verified lifetime PnL

$32.11MVolume

61.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400

0.98%PnL ÷ Volume

$1K7-day PnL

$38930-day PnL

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$313.4K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid$0only the fills we could read — a floor

Rebates (maker + taker)$42.0Kpartial

Liquidity rewards$308

0.98% ROI27.3% Win rate · n=900

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleShort-cycle specialist100% of last 500 fills (over 27.5 h) are 5/15-min or hourly marketsMostly maker100% of 473 archived fills were maker (resting order) fillsHolds to settlementSells are only 0% of turnover in the last 500 fills (over 27.5 h)Mainly crypto100% of last 500 fills (over 27.5 h) are crypto marketsRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

No category in profit; worst is Crypto -$28.1K

Crypto400 pos.-$28.1K

Top 5 winning markets

+$1,498Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ETCrypto · Up
+$1,310Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ETCrypto · Down
+$1,204Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ETCrypto · Up
+$1,194Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ETCrypto · Down
+$1,143Solana Up or Down - April 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ETCrypto · Up

Top 5 losing markets

-$2,848Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ETCrypto · Down
-$1,998Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ETCrypto · Down
-$1,933Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ETCrypto · Down
-$1,860Solana Up or Down - April 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ETCrypto · Up
-$1,841Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ETCrypto · Up

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 3000+ losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$63.3K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04

Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →

$313KVerified lifetime PnL

$264KEarned off the board

74Days on board

$50KBoard-day sum

$1K7-day PnL

$38930-day PnL

Month by month

Month	Days on a board	Summed PnL
2026-04	4	$4K
2026-05	18	$14K
2026-06	19	$12K
2026-07	18	$15K
2026-08	9	$3K
2026-09	6	$952

Which boards

Crypto 74

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen

Visible rebatesopen

Profit compositionopen

Measured layers

100% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $42K (100% maker / 0% taker)

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

passive (market maker)

Passive ratio100%

Fills measured473

Window ends2026-09-29

Window scope0 days

Visible rebates

Maker-rebate heavy

Visible rebate total$42K

Maker rebate$42K

Taker rebate$0

Maker share100%

Taker share0%

Window2026-01-08 → 2026-11-04

Profit composition

Insufficient data

Trade cash$297K

Rebate$2K

Net total$298K

Window2026-10-05 → 2026-11-04

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$50K

Verified lifetime PnL$313K

Verification gap$264K

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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)