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← All boardsIs occasionalAwareness really profitable on Polymarket?
0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b
Short answer
Mostly yes. occasionalAwareness made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 95 days (2026-04-29 to 2026-10-09), adding up to $83K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.12M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$24K, last month -$10K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Finance traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 90% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 90%Verified PnL#58 of 624
Beats 12%30-day PnL#519 of 594
Beats 49%Win rate#299 of 592
Beats 55%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#278 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board95
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-29
Last seen2026-10-09
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$1.12M
Verified lifetime PnL
$103.00MVolume
64.1%Win rate (sample) · n=395
1.08%PnL ÷ Volume
$24K7-day PnL
-$10K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.12M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $3,853only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,642partial
Liquidity rewards$29.9Kpartial
1.09% ROI59.8% Win rate · n=423
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$519.9K · loses the most in Other -$54.0K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$161.0KKamala Harris wins the popular vote?Politics · No / Yes
- +$91.4KWill Biden announce resignation by July 31?Politics · No / Yes
- +$86.6KBiden wins the Popular Vote?Politics · No / Yes
- +$71.8KWill Donald Trump be inaugurated?Politics · Yes / No
- +$59.2KWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$81.8KWill Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Politics · No
- -$78.0KWill George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · Yes
- -$56.5KWill Trump win Florida by 8+ points?Politics · No
- -$54.2KWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- -$30.8KWill a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$1.12MVerified lifetime PnL
$1.04MEarned off the board
95Days on board
$83KBoard-day sum
$24K7-day PnL
-$10K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $327 |
| 2026-05 | 14 | $5K |
| 2026-06 | 17 | $20K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $10K |
| 2026-08 | 23 | $11K |
| 2026-09 | 15 | $13K |
| 2026-10 | 6 | $24K |
Which boards
Finance 62Politics 26Sports 10Culture 7Crypto 5Weather 3All markets 2Mentions 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
87% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (86% maker / 14% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio87%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-21
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$1K
Taker rebate$224
Maker share86%
Taker share14%
Window2026-02-14 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$83K
Verified lifetime PnL$1.12M
Verification gap$1.04M
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)