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← All boardsIs 0x8b4bca1d… really profitable on Polymarket?
0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. 0x8b4bca1d… made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 125 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $272K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$212K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$26K, last month +$55K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 5% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 5%Verified PnL#587 of 624
Beats 77%30-day PnL#133 of 594
Beats 85%Win rate#88 of 592
Beats 12%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#541 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board125
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$212K
Verified lifetime PnL
$44.70MVolume
85.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-0.39%PnL ÷ Volume
-$26K7-day PnL
$55K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$212.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $4,660only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$12.6Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$9,959
-0.47% ROI85.4% Win rate · n=404
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$53.7K · loses the most in Politics -$233.4K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$37.1KWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics · No
- +$35.6KWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?Sports · Yes
- +$31.5KWill Spain win on 2026-07-14?Sports · Yes
- +$31.0KWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Politics · No
- +$26.0KWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?Crypto · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$133.1KChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?Politics · No
- -$107.1KExact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?Sports · No
- -$88.3KWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Tech & science · No / Yes
- -$81.4KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · Yes / No
- -$63.1KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$212KVerified lifetime PnL
$485KBelow board-day sum
125Days on board
$272KBoard-day sum
-$26K7-day PnL
$55K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $10K |
| 2026-04 | 5 | $7K |
| 2026-05 | 23 | $24K |
| 2026-06 | 20 | $16K |
| 2026-07 | 28 | $41K |
| 2026-08 | 23 | $58K |
| 2026-09 | 20 | $40K |
| 2026-10 | 4 | $60K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $17K |
Which boards
Politics 85Crypto 68Sports 22Culture 16Finance 6All markets 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
94% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $13K (88% maker / 12% taker); recent window rebate share 10%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio94%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-23
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$13K
Maker rebate$11K
Taker rebate$2K
Maker share88%
Taker share12%
Window2026-02-11 → 2026-10-11
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$21K
Rebate$2K
Net total$24K
Rebate share10%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$272K
Verified lifetime PnL-$212K
Verification gap-$485K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)