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Is LlamaLoco0000 really profitable on Polymarket?
0x93fb8127a1b21a112b11af936361225df0563e4a
Short answer
Mostly yes. LlamaLoco0000 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 111 days (2026-04-26 to 2026-10-30), adding up to $311K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$325K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$72K, last month -$90K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Crypto traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 77% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 77%Verified PnL#143 of 624
Beats 5%30-day PnL#559 of 594
Beats 17%Win rate#487 of 592
Beats 57%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#262 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board111
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-26
Last seen2026-10-30
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$325K
Verified lifetime PnL
$29.42MVolume
45.4%Win rate · n=295
1.20%PnL ÷ Volume
-$72K7-day PnL
-$90K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$325.0K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $11.3Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$5,898partial
Liquidity rewards$9,442partial
1.10% ROI34.2% Win rate · n=392
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$950.5K · loses the most in Crypto -$296.7K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$586.6KChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?Politics · Yes
- +$202.2KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$71.2KWill Iran close its airspace by July 15?Politics · Yes
- +$68.6KWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Politics · No
- +$64.6KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$99.3KWill Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?Crypto · Yes
- -$69.8KWill Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · Yes
- -$63.2KIsrael x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?Politics · Yes
- -$50.8KWill XRP reach $4.00 in August?Crypto · Yes
- -$42.7KWill Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · Yes
Covers the 298 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$325KVerified lifetime PnL
$14KEarned off the board
111Days on board
$311KBoard-day sum
-$72K7-day PnL
-$90K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $1K |
| 2026-05 | 24 | $39K |
| 2026-06 | 20 | $56K |
| 2026-07 | 20 | $77K |
| 2026-08 | 23 | $95K |
| 2026-09 | 18 | $14K |
| 2026-10 | 3 | $29K |
Which boards
Crypto 53Politics 53Sports 30Finance 17All markets 9Culture 3Mentions 1Weather 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
91% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $6K (58% maker / 42% taker); rebate covers 0% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio91%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-20
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$6K
Maker rebate$3K
Taker rebate$2K
Maker share58%
Taker share42%
Window2026-04-08 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$596K
Rebate$447
Net total-$595K
Rebate covers loss0%
Window2026-09-30 → 2026-10-30
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$311K
Verified lifetime PnL$325K
Verification gap$14K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)