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← All boardsIs anoin123 really profitable on Polymarket?
0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. anoin123 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 168 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-10-31), adding up to $1.05M on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$4.70M. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$352K, last month +$984K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 0% of the 622 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 0%Verified PnL#620 of 622
Beats 96%30-day PnL#12 of 308
Beats 47%Win rate#298 of 568
Beats 2%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#578 of 591
Compared with the 622 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board168
Archive span202 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-10-31
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$4.70M
Verified lifetime PnL
$122.86MVolume
63.2%Win rate (sample) · n=399
-4.06%PnL ÷ Volume
$352K7-day PnL
$984K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-31
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$4.70M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $59only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$18.1Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$92.2Kpartial
-3.82% ROI34.8% Win rate · n=725
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Tech & science +$246.7K · loses the most in Politics -$4.00M
Top 5 winning markets
- +$341.1KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$218.9KUS forces enter Iran by March 31?Politics · No / Yes
- +$189.0KUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Politics · No / Yes
- +$173.0KUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Politics · No
- +$168.3KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Politics · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1.60MUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · No
- -$630.9KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · Yes / No
- -$588.6KUS strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Politics · No
- -$463.8KWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · No
- -$448.5KUS strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-31
-$4.70MVerified lifetime PnL
$5.75MBelow board-day sum
168Days on board
$2.47MBoard-day sum
$352K7-day PnL
$984K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 11 | $407K |
| 2026-04 | 20 | $911K |
| 2026-05 | 28 | $537K |
| 2026-06 | 22 | $145K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $32K |
| 2026-08 | 28 | $126K |
| 2026-09 | 27 | $90K |
| 2026-10 | 13 | $220K |
Which boards
Politics 105Tech 75Finance 40Culture 27All markets 23Weather 15Sports 3Crypto 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
99% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $18K (99% maker / 1% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio99%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$18K
Maker rebate$18K
Taker rebate$122
Maker share99%
Taker share1%
Window2026-04-24 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$1.14M
Rebate$6K
Net total$1.14M
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$1.05M
Verified lifetime PnL-$4.70M
Verification gap-$5.75M
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-10-31 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-31 (202 snapshots)