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Is 0xa0f21e6d… really profitable on Polymarket?
0xa0f21e6d351baa9185716b5c00c2925ed9621848
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. 0xa0f21e6d… made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 70 days (2026-05-04 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $550K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$3.60M. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 0% of the 1156 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 0%Verified PnL#1150 of 1156
Beats 10%Win rate#865 of 963
Beats 0%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#991 of 1000
Compared with the 1156 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board70
Archive span207 days
First seen2026-05-04
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$3.60M
Verified lifetime PnL
$58.24MVolume
42.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-5.79%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-05
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$3.60M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $977only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$860
-6.19% ROI36.1% Win rate · n=515
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$21.5K · loses the most in Sports -$2.59M
Top 5 winning markets
- +$284.9KEngland vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSports · Argentina
- +$225.8KWarriors vs. TimberwolvesSports · Warriors
- +$193.7KUFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Paddy Pimblett
- +$190.6KKnicks vs. SpursSports · Knicks
- +$177.3KSpurs vs. ThunderSports · Spurs
Top 5 losing markets
- -$769.3KSeahawks vs. PatriotsSports · Patriots
- -$365.1KUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Sports · Conor McGregor
- -$307.8KSpain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSports · Argentina
- -$306.7KWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Sports · Yes
- -$228.2KWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?Sports · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 98 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$196.4K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-05
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$3.60MVerified lifetime PnL
$4.15MBelow board-day sum
70Days on board
$550KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 8 | $176K |
| 2026-06 | 11 | $220K |
| 2026-07 | 14 | $38K |
| 2026-08 | 21 | $89K |
| 2026-09 | 16 | $28K |
Which boards
Sports 46Politics 20All markets 14Culture 10Crypto 5Finance 4
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
69% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio69%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-29
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$550K
Verified lifetime PnL-$3.60M
Verification gap-$4.15M
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-05 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-05 (207 snapshots)