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Is AiBird really profitable on Polymarket?
0xa58d4f278d7953cd38eeb929f7e242bfc7c0b9b8
Short answer
Mostly yes. AiBird made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 110 days (2026-03-22 to 2026-10-08), adding up to $26K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$121K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$1K, last month -$5K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Finance traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 63% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 63%Verified PnL#228 of 624
Beats 14%30-day PnL#508 of 594
Beats 42%Win rate#340 of 592
Beats 21%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#484 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board110
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-22
Last seen2026-10-08
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$121K
Verified lifetime PnL
$260.75MVolume
59.6%Win rate (sample) · n=394
0.05%PnL ÷ Volume
$1K7-day PnL
-$5K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$120.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $46only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$4,954partial
Liquidity rewards$110.3Kpartial
0.05% ROI31.5% Win rate · n=745
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$84.2K · loses the most in Culture -$1,642
Top 5 winning markets
- +$21.8KWill Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?Politics · Yes
- +$10.6KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$6,502Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Politics · Yes / No
- +$6,034Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
- +$5,755Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?Sports · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$3,014US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$2,495Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?Finance · No
- -$2,305Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$1,910Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- -$1,402Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$121KVerified lifetime PnL
$95KEarned off the board
110Days on board
$26KBoard-day sum
$1K7-day PnL
-$5K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $459 |
| 2026-04 | 3 | $379 |
| 2026-05 | 22 | $7K |
| 2026-06 | 20 | $9K |
| 2026-07 | 21 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 23 | $2K |
| 2026-09 | 18 | $2K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $2K |
Which boards
Finance 39Tech 39Politics 23Mentions 21Culture 19Crypto 6Sports 3
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
71% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $5K (72% maker / 28% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio71%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-28
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$5K
Maker rebate$4K
Taker rebate$1K
Maker share72%
Taker share28%
Window2026-04-02 → 2026-11-01
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$69K
Rebate$666
Net total$70K
Window2026-10-02 → 2026-11-01
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$26K
Verified lifetime PnL$121K
Verification gap$95K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)