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← All boardsIs Talvez10 really profitable on Polymarket?
0xa71093cafc0c099b4ccab24c3cb8018d817923c4
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. Talvez10 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 74 days (2026-03-29 to 2026-10-04), adding up to $3.94M on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$1.39M: a gap of $2.55M that can only come from losing days the board never shows. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$442K, last month -$212K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 92% of the 622 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 92%Verified PnL#47 of 622
Beats 3%30-day PnL#296 of 308
Beats 13%Win rate#492 of 568
Beats 70%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#178 of 591
Compared with the 622 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board74
Archive span202 days
First seen2026-03-29
Last seen2026-10-04
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$1.39M
Verified lifetime PnL
$82.68MVolume
42%Win rate (sample) · n=400
1.97%PnL ÷ Volume
-$442K7-day PnL
-$212K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-31
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.39M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $16.1Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$74.7Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$2,945
1.68% ROI40.7% Win rate · n=413
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$299.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$291.4KKnicks vs. 76ersSports · Knicks
- +$232.0KWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?Sports · Yes
- +$222.8KUFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)Sports · Gilbert Urbina
- +$167.2KMavericks vs. PacersSports · Mavericks
- +$137.8KNoche UFC: Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)Sports · Tim Elliott
Top 5 losing markets
- -$224.2KCeltics vs. LakersSports · Lakers
- -$171.3KCanadiens vs. SenatorsSports · Senators
- -$162.5KMaple Leafs vs. DucksSports · Ducks
- -$153.1KPenguins vs. FlyersSports · Penguins
- -$147.5KRed Wings vs. SenatorsSports · Senators
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-31
$1.39MVerified lifetime PnL
$2.55MBelow board-day sum
74Days on board
$4.06MBoard-day sum
-$442K7-day PnL
-$212K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $277K |
| 2026-04 | 5 | $585K |
| 2026-05 | 14 | $910K |
| 2026-06 | 15 | $686K |
| 2026-07 | 14 | $424K |
| 2026-08 | 16 | $302K |
| 2026-09 | 6 | $612K |
| 2026-10 | 2 | $267K |
Which boards
Sports 74All markets 46
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
96% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $75K (65% maker / 35% taker); rebate covers 4% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio96%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$75K
Maker rebate$49K
Taker rebate$26K
Maker share65%
Taker share35%
Window2026-03-31 → 2026-10-30
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$258K
Rebate$9K
Net total-$248K
Rebate covers loss4%
Window2026-10-01 → 2026-10-31
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$3.94M
Verified lifetime PnL$1.39M
Verification gap-$2.55M
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Generated 2026-10-31 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-31 (202 snapshots)