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Is Tenebrus7 really profitable on Polymarket?
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Short answer
Mostly yes. Tenebrus7 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 114 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $44K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$161K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$7K, last month +$10K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 74% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 74%Verified PnL#293 of 1130
Beats 57%30-day PnL#341 of 810
Beats 62%Win rate#353 of 928
Beats 28%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#686 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board114
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$161K
Verified lifetime PnL
$80.53MVolume
71.6%Win rate (sample) · n=394
0.18%PnL ÷ Volume
$7K7-day PnL
$10K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$160.5K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $8only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$11.1Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$51.4Kpartial
0.20% ROI60.8% Win rate · n=464
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$38.5K · loses the most in Politics -$48.0K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$25.1KWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Politics · Yes
- +$17.6KWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics · Yes
- +$16.2KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$13.9KWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- +$12.7KWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$30.7KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- -$19.7KIsrael military action against Iran before July?Politics · No
- -$19.4KUS strikes Iraq by February 28?Politics · No
- -$12.0KIsrael strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?Politics · No
- -$11.3KUS forces enter Iran by December 31?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 70 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$25.7K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$161KVerified lifetime PnL
$117KEarned off the board
114Days on board
$44KBoard-day sum
$7K7-day PnL
$10K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $1K |
| 2026-05 | 25 | $12K |
| 2026-06 | 21 | $9K |
| 2026-07 | 23 | $6K |
| 2026-08 | 26 | $9K |
| 2026-09 | 16 | $7K |
Which boards
Politics 80Tech 23Finance 23Sports 13Mentions 7Culture 7Crypto 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
95% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $11K (98% maker / 2% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio95%
Fills measured486
Window ends2026-09-29
Window scope1 days
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$11K
Maker rebate$11K
Taker rebate$187
Maker share98%
Taker share2%
Window2026-04-03 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$44K
Verified lifetime PnL$161K
Verification gap$117K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)