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← All boardsIs novv25 really profitable on Polymarket?
0xa9fe4929d4ea1525ca03bd0ff68ea1fbf9e7f135
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. novv25 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 57 days (2026-04-02 to 2026-10-29), adding up to $189K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$288K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$9K, last month -$11K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 5% of the 625 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 5%Verified PnL#592 of 625
Beats 10%30-day PnL#464 of 519
Beats 39%Win rate#342 of 566
Beats 2%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#579 of 592
Compared with the 625 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board57
Archive span201 days
First seen2026-04-02
Last seen2026-10-29
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$288K
Verified lifetime PnL
$6.87MVolume
57.6%Win rate · n=99
-4.20%PnL ÷ Volume
$9K7-day PnL
-$11K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-30
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$291.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $3,559only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$1,238partial
Liquidity rewards$1,926
-4.25% ROI50% Win rate · n=114
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$32.2K · loses the most in Politics -$64.7K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$29.2KWill Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?Crypto · Yes
- +$25.2KUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Politics · No / Yes
- +$14.8KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · No
- +$12.1KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Finance · No
- +$10.6KNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$70.5KWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics · Yes
- -$42.8KWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?Crypto · Yes
- -$27.0KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Politics · No
- -$18.3KWill Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025?Crypto · Yes
- -$15.7KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Politics · No
Covers all 100 closed positions this wallet has. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-30
-$288KVerified lifetime PnL
$477KBelow board-day sum
57Days on board
$189KBoard-day sum
$9K7-day PnL
-$11K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $87K |
| 2026-05 | 12 | $36K |
| 2026-06 | 9 | $16K |
| 2026-07 | 14 | $22K |
| 2026-08 | 11 | $13K |
| 2026-09 | 6 | $14K |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $2K |
Which boards
Politics 35Finance 24All markets 3Culture 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
74% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $1K (81% maker / 19% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio74%
Fills measured490
Window ends2026-10-29
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$1K
Maker rebate$998
Taker rebate$240
Maker share81%
Taker share19%
Window2026-04-13 → 2026-10-23
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$189K
Verified lifetime PnL-$288K
Verification gap-$477K
Trade on Polymarket
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Archived 2026-10-30 · not refreshed since then · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-30 (201 snapshots)