ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs SnapElectionAvoider really profitable on Polymarket?
0xb1ca909e848cc24ec4e220ce1c453bc290c51705
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. SnapElectionAvoider made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 142 days (2026-04-17 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $468K on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$207K: a gap of $260K that can only come from losing days the board never shows. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$42K, last month -$23K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 70% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 70%Verified PnL#183 of 624
Beats 9%30-day PnL#539 of 594
Beats 16%Win rate#493 of 592
Beats 48%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#321 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board142
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-17
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$207K
Verified lifetime PnL
$21.83MVolume
45%Win rate (sample) · n=400
0.87%PnL ÷ Volume
-$42K7-day PnL
-$23K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$207.5K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $3,440only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$8,912partial
Liquidity rewards$30.2K
0.95% ROI44.9% Win rate · n=401
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$218.6K · loses the most in Crypto -$24.3K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$147.5KWill Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?Politics · Yes
- +$58.6KWill Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Politics · Yes
- +$21.5KUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Politics · No
- +$20.9KWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics · No / Yes
- +$19.9KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$66.3KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Politics · No
- -$39.1KSweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?Politics · No
- -$34.9KWill Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Politics · No
- -$32.2KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$24.6KWill Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$207KVerified lifetime PnL
$260KBelow board-day sum
142Days on board
$468KBoard-day sum
-$42K7-day PnL
-$23K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | $55K |
| 2026-05 | 22 | $133K |
| 2026-06 | 24 | $54K |
| 2026-07 | 22 | $22K |
| 2026-08 | 30 | $74K |
| 2026-09 | 28 | $113K |
| 2026-10 | 9 | $14K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $692 |
Which boards
Politics 102Tech 44Culture 39Finance 32Crypto 18All markets 8Mentions 4Weather 4Sports 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
70% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $9K (64% maker / 36% taker); recent window rebate share 0%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio70%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$9K
Maker rebate$6K
Taker rebate$3K
Maker share64%
Taker share36%
Window2026-04-05 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$544K
Rebate$1K
Net total$545K
Rebate share0%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$468K
Verified lifetime PnL$207K
Verification gap-$260K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)