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Is ScottyNooo really profitable on Polymarket?

0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35

Short answer

Mostly yes. ScottyNooo made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 94 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-10-05), adding up to $397K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$910K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$48K, last month -$204K.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 88% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 88%Verified PnL#70 of 624
Beats 3%30-day PnL#574 of 594
Beats 16%Win rate#491 of 592
Beats 41%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#364 of 620

Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board94
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-10-05
VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$910K

Verified lifetime PnL

$146.78MVolume
45.1%Win rate (sample) · n=399
0.64%PnL ÷ Volume
-$48K7-day PnL
-$204K30-day PnL
2026-03 2026-10

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$909.6K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $3,100only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$6,355partial
Liquidity rewards$37.7Kpartial
0.62% ROI44.8% Win rate · n=402

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleMostly maker90% of 480 archived fills were maker (resting order) fillsMainly politics78% of last 500 fills (over 5.6 days) are politics marketsRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Politics +$376.1K · loses the most in Tech & science -$60.1K

Politics340 pos.+$376.1K
Finance24 pos.+$103.6K
Culture17 pos.+$66.5K
Crypto5 pos.+$26.8K
Sports5 pos.-$51.1K
Tech & science9 pos.-$60.1K

Top 5 winning markets

  1. +$281.5KWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Politics · Yes / No
  2. +$230.2KWill Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?Politics · No / Yes
  3. +$214.1KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
  4. +$161.7KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
  5. +$78.4KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · No

Top 5 losing markets

  1. -$466.5KWill the government shutdown end November 12?Politics · No / Yes
  2. -$322.1KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
  3. -$110.4K Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics · No / Yes
  4. -$90.3KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Politics · Yes
  5. -$90.1KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Politics · Yes / No

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01

$910KVerified lifetime PnL
$513KEarned off the board
94Days on board
$397KBoard-day sum
-$48K7-day PnL
-$204K30-day PnL

Month by month

MonthDays on a boardSummed PnL
2026-03 4 $52K
2026-04 7 $120K
2026-05 19 $78K
2026-06 16 $90K
2026-07 16 $21K
2026-08 14 $9K
2026-09 16 $14K
2026-10 2 $13K

Which boards

Politics 65Sports 16Tech 13Mentions 10Culture 7All markets 3Crypto 3Finance 2Weather 1

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen

Measured layers

90% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $6K (80% maker / 20% taker); rebate covers 1% of recent trading losses

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

passive (market maker)

Passive ratio90%
Fills measured480
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scope2 days

Visible rebates

Maker-rebate heavy

Visible rebate total$6K
Maker rebate$5K
Taker rebate$1K
Maker share80%
Taker share20%
Window2026-04-14 → 2026-10-12

Profit composition

Rebate covering trading losses

Trade cash-$298K
Rebate$3K
Net total-$295K
Rebate covers loss1%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$397K
Verified lifetime PnL$910K
Verification gap$513K

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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)