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← All boardsIs Erasmus. really profitable on Polymarket?
0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. Erasmus. made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 61 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-09-25), adding up to $546K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$366K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$114K, last month -$506K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 4% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 4%Verified PnL#594 of 624
Beats 0%30-day PnL#590 of 594
Beats 72%Win rate#165 of 592
Beats 25%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#460 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board61
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-09-25
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$366K
Verified lifetime PnL
$146.11MVolume
76.3%Win rate (sample) · n=400
0.14%PnL ÷ Volume
-$114K7-day PnL
-$506K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$366.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $72.0Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$12.1Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$2,729
-0.25% ROI67.2% Win rate · n=454
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$371.2K · loses the most in Finance -$132.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$389.4KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$305.9KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$251.7KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$200.3KWill Biden finish his term?Politics · Yes
- +$176.1KTikTok banned in the US before May 2025?Culture · Yes / No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1.10MWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics · Yes / No
- -$541.6KKamala Harris wins the popular vote?Politics · Yes
- -$534.7KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- -$469.0KNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes
- -$259.1KWill a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$366KVerified lifetime PnL
$913KBelow board-day sum
61Days on board
$546KBoard-day sum
-$114K7-day PnL
-$506K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 2 | $18K |
| 2026-04 | 4 | $73K |
| 2026-05 | 17 | $291K |
| 2026-06 | 12 | $37K |
| 2026-07 | 14 | $105K |
| 2026-08 | 6 | $5K |
| 2026-09 | 6 | $18K |
Which boards
Politics 49Weather 16All markets 6Sports 2Culture 1Finance 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
15% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $12K (1% maker / 99% taker); recent window rebate share 2%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
unknown (methods disagree)
Passive ratio15%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$12K
Maker rebate$133
Taker rebate$12K
Maker share1%
Taker share99%
Window2026-04-30 → 2026-10-06
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$352K
Rebate$6K
Net total$358K
Rebate share2%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$546K
Verified lifetime PnL-$366K
Verification gap-$913K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)