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Is luck00004 really profitable on Polymarket?
0xc6e956068048c1cf98d8f0b3a495edc9da130741
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. luck00004 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 62 days (2026-06-24 to 2026-10-11), adding up to $255K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$312K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$4K, last month -$703.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Finance traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 5% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 5%Verified PnL#590 of 624
Beats 22%30-day PnL#459 of 594
Beats 90%Win rate#58 of 592
Beats 0%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#616 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board62
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-06-24
Last seen2026-10-11
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$312K
Verified lifetime PnL
$4.15MVolume
91.5%Win rate · n=47
-6.83%PnL ÷ Volume
$4K7-day PnL
-$70330-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$311.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,907only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$6,594partial
Liquidity rewards$5,481
-7.50% ROI53.1% Win rate · n=81
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$170.5K · loses the most in Politics -$1,072
Top 5 winning markets
- +$36.3KWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Finance · No
- +$27.1KWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Finance · No
- +$20.7KWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Finance · No
- +$19.3KWill France win on 2026-07-09?Sports · Yes
- +$18.7KWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Finance · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$1,072Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics · No
- -$14.76Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?Sports · Yes
- -$3Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Culture · Yes
- -$0.57Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 22?Weather · No
Covers all 54 closed positions this wallet has. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$312KVerified lifetime PnL
$567KBelow board-day sum
62Days on board
$255KBoard-day sum
$4K7-day PnL
-$70330-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 2 | $40K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $49K |
| 2026-08 | 21 | $121K |
| 2026-09 | 13 | $23K |
| 2026-10 | 7 | $21K |
Which boards
Finance 53All markets 12Sports 11Crypto 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
93% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $7K (96% maker / 4% taker); recent window rebate share 1%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio93%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$7K
Maker rebate$6K
Taker rebate$283
Maker share96%
Taker share4%
Window2026-06-27 → 2026-10-30
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$117K
Rebate$888
Net total$118K
Rebate share1%
Window2026-10-01 → 2026-10-31
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$255K
Verified lifetime PnL-$312K
Verification gap-$567K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)