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← All boardsIs ArmageddonRewardsBilly really profitable on Polymarket?
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. ArmageddonRewardsBilly made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 163 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $557K on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$323K: a gap of $235K that can only come from losing days the board never shows. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$157K, last month +$128K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 77% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 77%Verified PnL#144 of 624
Beats 86%30-day PnL#82 of 594
Beats 17%Win rate#486 of 592
Beats 23%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#476 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board163
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$323K
Verified lifetime PnL
$520.88MVolume
45.7%Win rate (sample) · n=396
0.06%PnL ÷ Volume
$157K7-day PnL
$128K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$322.5K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $158only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$84.1Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$801.0Kpartial
0.06% ROI45.7% Win rate · n=396
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$895.4K · loses the most in Politics -$213.7K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$710.9KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$232.0KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes
- +$86.0KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
- +$82.7KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$79.6KNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$117.5KNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes
- -$114.5KFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?Politics · Yes
- -$102.1KIran closes its airspace by May 24?Politics · Yes / No
- -$71.8KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- -$57.9KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes / No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$323KVerified lifetime PnL
$235KBelow board-day sum
163Days on board
$557KBoard-day sum
$157K7-day PnL
$128K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 10 | $158K |
| 2026-04 | 12 | $82K |
| 2026-05 | 31 | $163K |
| 2026-06 | 30 | $80K |
| 2026-07 | 31 | $32K |
| 2026-08 | 29 | $32K |
| 2026-09 | 20 | $10K |
Which boards
Politics 102Finance 82Mentions 65Tech 57Sports 53Weather 39Crypto 30Culture 26All markets 8
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
95% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $84K (97% maker / 3% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio95%
Fills measured498
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$84K
Maker rebate$82K
Taker rebate$2K
Maker share97%
Taker share3%
Window2026-03-04 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$1.02M
Rebate$5K
Net total$1.03M
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$557K
Verified lifetime PnL$323K
Verification gap-$235K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)