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Is 0xc8b9a301… really profitable on Polymarket?

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Short answer

Mostly yes. 0xc8b9a301… made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 60 days (2026-04-27 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $70K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$371K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$80K, last month +$117K.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 78% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 78%Verified PnL#133 of 624
Beats 85%30-day PnL#88 of 594
Beats 53%Win rate#275 of 592
Beats 94%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#33 of 620

Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board60
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-27
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$371K

Verified lifetime PnL

$4.77MVolume
65.9%Win rate (sample) · n=396
5.89%PnL ÷ Volume
$80K7-day PnL
$117K30-day PnL
2026-04 2026-09

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$370.9K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $3,668only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$2,948partial
Liquidity rewards$12.5K
7.78% ROI65.9% Win rate · n=396

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleMostly maker87% of 500 archived fills were maker (resting order) fillsMid-price trader55% of 352 buys between 35¢ and 65¢Mainly politics88% of last 500 fills (over 6.8 days) are politics marketsAdds on strength40% of 20 multi-buy positions added 10%+ above the first priceRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Politics +$354.9K · loses the most in Culture -$3,226

Politics343 pos.+$354.9K
Sports55 pos.+$11.5K
Culture2 pos.-$3,226

Top 5 winning markets

  1. +$64.1KWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics · Yes / No
  2. +$37.6KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · No
  3. +$28.3KWill Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?Politics · Yes
  4. +$18.3KWill Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?Politics · Yes
  5. +$11.9KWill Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Politics · Yes

Top 5 losing markets

  1. -$8,254Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?Politics · Yes
  2. -$7,540Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Politics · Yes
  3. -$6,896Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?Politics · No
  4. -$6,015Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?Politics · No / Yes
  5. -$5,884Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Politics · Yes

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01

$371KVerified lifetime PnL
$301KEarned off the board
60Days on board
$70KBoard-day sum
$80K7-day PnL
$117K30-day PnL

Month by month

MonthDays on a boardSummed PnL
2026-04 2 $385
2026-05 5 $2K
2026-06 17 $30K
2026-07 12 $11K
2026-08 16 $27K
2026-09 8 $759

Which boards

Politics 60All markets 1

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet

Measured layers

87% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $3K (75% maker / 25% taker)

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

mostly passive

Passive ratio87%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-01
Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Maker-rebate heavy

Visible rebate total$3K
Maker rebate$2K
Taker rebate$735
Maker share75%
Taker share25%
Window2026-05-02 → 2026-10-23

Profit composition

No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$70K
Verified lifetime PnL$371K
Verification gap$301K

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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)