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Is justme003 really profitable on Polymarket?
0xcb894d56b6ed7f458e8534636a086b65e915a2e8
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. justme003 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 84 days (2026-03-22 to 2026-09-14), adding up to $19K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$30K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 11% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 11%Verified PnL#1004 of 1130
Beats 71%Win rate#263 of 928
Beats 10%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#855 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board84
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-03-22
Last seen2026-09-14
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$30K
Verified lifetime PnL
$3.31MVolume
76.7%Win rate · n=343
-0.82%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$30.2K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $625only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$342
-0.91% ROI76.2% Win rate · n=345
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Weather +$4,046 · loses the most in Finance -$11.6K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$2,611Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$2,434Megaquake by June 30?Weather · No
- +$1,933Starmer out by March 31, 2026?Politics · No
- +$1,912Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$1,870MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?Culture · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$6,142Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?Crypto · No
- -$4,517Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Finance · No
- -$4,266Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?Finance · No
- -$3,906Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics · No
- -$3,288Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?Finance · Yes / No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 2 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$1,747). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$30KVerified lifetime PnL
$49KBelow board-day sum
84Days on board
$19KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $61 |
| 2026-04 | 6 | $3K |
| 2026-05 | 20 | $6K |
| 2026-06 | 20 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 15 | $3K |
| 2026-08 | 16 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 6 | $500 |
Which boards
Politics 38Finance 27Crypto 25Weather 21
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
74% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio74%
Fills measured499
Window ends2026-10-14
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$19K
Verified lifetime PnL-$30K
Verification gap-$49K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)