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Is justdance really profitable on Polymarket?

Name: Is justdance really profitable on Polymarket? Verified PnL vs leaderboard
Creator: ProbPocket

0xcc500cbcc8b7cf5bd21975ebbea34f21b5644c82

Short answer

Mostly yes. justdance made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 79 days (2026-04-14 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $442K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$1.98M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$750, last month +$37K.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 94% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 94%Verified PnL#34 of 624

Beats 73%30-day PnL#159 of 594

Beats 18%Win rate#485 of 592

Beats 65%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#217 of 620

Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board79

Archive span203 days

First seen2026-04-14

Last seen2026-11-01

VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$1.98M

Verified lifetime PnL

$125.87MVolume

45.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400

1.58%PnL ÷ Volume

-$7507-day PnL

$37K30-day PnL

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$1.98M

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $11.8Konly the fills we could read — a floor

Rebates (maker + taker)$88.5Kpartial

Liquidity rewards$6,478partial

1.58% ROI35.4% Win rate · n=610

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleHolds to settlementSells are only 0% of turnover in the last 500 fills (over 2.3 days)Mainly crypto100% of last 500 fills (over 2.3 days) are crypto marketsAdds on strength48% of 54 multi-buy positions added 10%+ above the first priceRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Crypto +$467.8K

Crypto372 pos.+$467.8K

Finance1 pos.+$49.8K

Sports5 pos.+$41.9K

Politics22 pos.+$18.8K

Top 5 winning markets

+$80.3KWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October? Crypto · Yes
+$49.8KFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Finance · Yes
+$46.6KWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · No
+$45.8KWill Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?Crypto · Yes
+$45.4KKamala Harris wins the popular vote?Politics · Yes

Top 5 losing markets

-$79.0KWill Bitcoin reach $115k in May?Crypto · Yes
-$75.1KWill Bitcoin dip to $117K July 14–20?Crypto · No
-$67.7KWill Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?Crypto · Yes / No
-$62.6KWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto · No
-$61.6KWill Bitcoin hit $100k today?Crypto · No / Yes

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01

$1.98MVerified lifetime PnL

$1.54MEarned off the board

79Days on board

$442KBoard-day sum

-$7507-day PnL

$37K30-day PnL

Month by month

Month	Days on a board	Summed PnL
2026-04	7	$179K
2026-05	13	$57K
2026-06	16	$76K
2026-07	13	$32K
2026-08	15	$34K
2026-09	11	$15K
2026-10	3	$34K
2026-11	1	$16K

Which boards

Crypto 79All markets 4

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen

Visible rebatesopen

Profit compositionopen

Open the full teardown sample

Gallery sample: rebate is 25% of recent combined profit; mixed execution. Contrast with S-Works. Not copy-trading advice.

Open the full teardown sample →

Measured layers

42% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $88K (27% maker / 73% taker)

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

mixed

Passive ratio42%

Fills measured500

Window ends2026-09-25

Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Taker-rebate heavy

Visible rebate total$88K

Maker rebate$24K

Taker rebate$64K

Maker share27%

Taker share73%

Window2026-03-08 → 2026-10-12

Profit composition

Insufficient data

Trade cash$846K

Rebate$18K

Net total$865K

Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$442K

Verified lifetime PnL$1.98M

Verification gap$1.54M

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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)