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← All boardsIs pilimili really profitable on Polymarket?
0xd1049158a102840ce595efc6ab683a0cb6fbacef
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. pilimili made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 74 days (2026-06-10 to 2026-11-01), adding up to $172K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$225K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$25K, last month +$35K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 5% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 5%Verified PnL#589 of 624
Beats 72%30-day PnL#166 of 594
Beats 75%Win rate#144 of 592
Beats 10%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#557 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board74
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-06-10
Last seen2026-11-01
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$225K
Verified lifetime PnL
$32.27MVolume
79.4%Win rate · n=204
-0.78%PnL ÷ Volume
$25K7-day PnL
$35K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$225.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $266only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$8,977partial
Liquidity rewards$3,799
-0.70% ROI59.4% Win rate · n=276
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$334.2K · loses the most in Politics -$3,940
Top 5 winning markets
- +$166.9KWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$39.1KIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · No
- +$32.2KUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Sports · Max Holloway / Conor McGregor
- +$29.4KIran closes its airspace by June 8?Politics · Yes
- +$20.0KFrance vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Sports · Under
Top 5 losing markets
- -$89.9KArgentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceSports · Argentina
- -$56.4KWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?Sports · No
- -$34.6KIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?Politics · No
- -$34.0KIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?Politics · No
- -$33.0KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · No
Covers the 214 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$225KVerified lifetime PnL
$397KBelow board-day sum
74Days on board
$172KBoard-day sum
$25K7-day PnL
$35K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 15 | $76K |
| 2026-07 | 20 | $34K |
| 2026-08 | 19 | $11K |
| 2026-09 | 18 | $44K |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $4K |
| 2026-11 | 1 | $4K |
Which boards
Politics 50Sports 30Crypto 16Tech 4Finance 3All markets 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
98% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $9K (77% maker / 23% taker); rebate covers 2% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio98%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-24
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$9K
Maker rebate$7K
Taker rebate$2K
Maker share77%
Taker share23%
Window2026-06-07 → 2026-10-15
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$137K
Rebate$3K
Net total-$134K
Rebate covers loss2%
Window2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$172K
Verified lifetime PnL-$225K
Verification gap-$397K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)