ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs cigarettes really profitable on Polymarket?
0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. cigarettes made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 96 days (2026-03-22 to 2026-10-08), adding up to $631K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$52K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$2K, last month +$536K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 9% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 9%Verified PnL#564 of 624
Beats 95%30-day PnL#29 of 594
Beats 74%Win rate#152 of 592
Beats 19%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#502 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board96
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-22
Last seen2026-10-08
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$52K
Verified lifetime PnL
$596.18MVolume
78.1%Win rate (sample) · n=398
-0.01%PnL ÷ Volume
-$2K7-day PnL
$536K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$52.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $886only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$152.1Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$47.6Kpartial
-0.01% ROI69.6% Win rate · n=447
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$320.2K · loses the most in Finance -$209.4K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$2.57MWill George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · No / Yes
- +$1.60MWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics · No
- +$1.10MWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Politics · No / Yes
- +$1.05MWill Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Politics · No / Yes
- +$711.6KKamala Harris wins the popular vote?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$2.67MWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · No
- -$1.58MWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics · No
- -$1.08MWill Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Politics · Yes / No
- -$958.3KWill Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Politics · No
- -$770.1KWill Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?Sports · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$52KVerified lifetime PnL
$683KBelow board-day sum
96Days on board
$631KBoard-day sum
-$2K7-day PnL
$536K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $29K |
| 2026-04 | 5 | $96K |
| 2026-05 | 17 | $51K |
| 2026-06 | 16 | $296K |
| 2026-07 | 18 | $54K |
| 2026-08 | 23 | $26K |
| 2026-09 | 15 | $63K |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $18K |
Which boards
Sports 57Politics 42All markets 13Tech 13Weather 10Culture 5Finance 4
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
96% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $152K (65% maker / 35% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio96%
Fills measured491
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$152K
Maker rebate$99K
Taker rebate$53K
Maker share65%
Taker share35%
Window2026-02-26 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$2.68M
Rebate$17K
Net total$2.69M
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$631K
Verified lifetime PnL-$52K
Verification gap-$683K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)