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← All boardsIs ComingBack really profitable on Polymarket?
0xd48a81db62f742c4e42d86dfc23a7ee345366e90
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. ComingBack made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 102 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $397K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$661K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$416, last month -$2K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 3% of the 622 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 3%Verified PnL#603 of 622
Beats 21%30-day PnL#243 of 308
Beats 97%Win rate#15 of 568
Beats 7%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#547 of 591
Compared with the 622 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board102
Archive span202 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$661K
Verified lifetime PnL
$58.81MVolume
97.8%Win rate (sample) · n=400
-1.13%PnL ÷ Volume
-$4167-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-31
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$661.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $18.2Konly the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$49.2Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$2,854
-1.12% ROI44.5% Win rate · n=878
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$225.4K · loses the most in Politics -$170.7K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$34.0KUS government shutdown Saturday?Politics · Yes
- +$18.8KArizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersSports · Arizona Diamondbacks
- +$16.5KBaltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersSports · Baltimore Orioles
- +$15.6KBaltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersSports · Baltimore Orioles
- +$14.3KCincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersSports · Cincinnati Reds
Top 5 losing markets
- -$68.0KThunder vs. LakersSports · Lakers / Thunder
- -$64.4KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · No
- -$42.9KWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?Sports · No
- -$35.5KUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · No
- -$30.7KLakers vs. RocketsSports · Lakers
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-31
-$661KVerified lifetime PnL
$1.06MBelow board-day sum
102Days on board
$647KBoard-day sum
-$4167-day PnL
-$2K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 5 | $27K |
| 2026-05 | 29 | $201K |
| 2026-06 | 23 | $166K |
| 2026-07 | 20 | $157K |
| 2026-08 | 17 | $93K |
| 2026-09 | 8 | $3K |
Which boards
Sports 78Finance 38Politics 29All markets 20Crypto 4
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
83% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $49K (30% maker / 70% taker); rebate covers 18% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio83%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-29
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$49K
Maker rebate$15K
Taker rebate$34K
Maker share30%
Taker share70%
Window2026-02-13 → 2026-10-31
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$12K
Rebate$2K
Net total-$10K
Rebate covers loss18%
Window2026-10-01 → 2026-10-31
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$397K
Verified lifetime PnL-$661K
Verification gap-$1.06M
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Generated 2026-10-31 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-31 (202 snapshots)