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Is SwissMiss really profitable on Polymarket?
0xdbade4c82fb72780a0db9a38f821d8671aba9c95
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. SwissMiss made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 87 days (2026-03-19 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $737K on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$156K: a gap of $582K that can only come from losing days the board never shows. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$2K, last month +$4K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 73% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 73%Verified PnL#297 of 1130
Beats 45%30-day PnL#440 of 810
Beats 41%Win rate#543 of 928
Beats 27%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#688 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board87
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-03-19
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$156K
Verified lifetime PnL
$88.50MVolume
60.9%Win rate (sample) · n=394
0.18%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
$4K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$155.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid$0only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$12.0Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$14.3K
0.18% ROI60.8% Win rate · n=395
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$854.4K · loses the most in Politics -$1.72M
Top 5 winning markets
- +$537.1KPirates vs. RedsSports · Pirates
- +$219.8KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Politics · No
- +$203.2KTrump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Politics · No
- +$200.0KAkron vs. BuffaloSports · Akron
- +$184.0KBoxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sports · Crawford
Top 5 losing markets
- -$780.0KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Politics · No
- -$527.4KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · No
- -$217.7KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · No
- -$197.5KUFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports · Ilia Topuria
- -$188.7KUS strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 1 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$2,492). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$156KVerified lifetime PnL
$582KBelow board-day sum
87Days on board
$737KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
$4K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 7 | $109K |
| 2026-04 | 11 | $125K |
| 2026-05 | 21 | $219K |
| 2026-06 | 18 | $272K |
| 2026-07 | 13 | $6K |
| 2026-08 | 10 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 7 | $3K |
Which boards
Politics 78Sports 10All markets 7Culture 4
Method breakdown
Execution stylenot measured yet
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
visible rebate $12K (100% maker / 0% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$12K
Maker rebate$12K
Taker rebate$0
Maker share100%
Taker share0%
Window2026-03-20 → 2026-06-23
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$737K
Verified lifetime PnL$156K
Verification gap-$582K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)