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Is Forecastication2 really profitable on Polymarket?
0xdd5ef115f801999575b03d78d0115ad8b2d59040
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. Forecastication2 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 73 days (2026-04-29 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $434K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$453K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$78K, last month -$149K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 2% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 2%Verified PnL#1102 of 1130
Beats 3%30-day PnL#782 of 810
Beats 85%Win rate#139 of 928
Beats 5%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#899 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board73
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-29
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$453K
Verified lifetime PnL
$20.58MVolume
87.2%Win rate (sample) · n=399
-1.55%PnL ÷ Volume
-$78K7-day PnL
-$149K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$452.8K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $815only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$60.0Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$95
-2.20% ROI38.8% Win rate · n=896
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$759.9K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$28.4KExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?Sports · Yes
- +$25.2KSpread: France (-1.5)Sports · France
- +$24.5KMexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total CornersSports · Over
- +$22.1KExact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?Sports · Yes
- +$22.0KEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfSports · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$22.0KMexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to ScoreSports · Yes
- -$16.2KCristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsSports · Yes
- -$15.7KSpread: Spain (-1.5)Sports · Spain
- -$14.8KGhana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5Sports · Over
- -$13.7KSpread: Spain (-2.5)Sports · Spain
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 2984+ losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$794.1K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
-$453KVerified lifetime PnL
$887KBelow board-day sum
73Days on board
$434KBoard-day sum
-$78K7-day PnL
-$149K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 1 | $337 |
| 2026-05 | 16 | $66K |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $103K |
| 2026-07 | 15 | $176K |
| 2026-08 | 15 | $83K |
| 2026-09 | 12 | $6K |
Which boards
Sports 73All markets 12
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
26% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $60K (7% maker / 93% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly aggressive
Passive ratio26%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-10
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Taker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$60K
Maker rebate$4K
Taker rebate$56K
Maker share7%
Taker share93%
Window2026-05-01 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$663K
Rebate$13K
Net total$676K
Window2026-10-05 → 2026-11-04
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$434K
Verified lifetime PnL-$453K
Verification gap-$887K
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)